OECD cuts Canada growth outlook, citing new U.S. tariffs in 2026 and 2027

Reuters reported from the OECD's latest interim economic outlook that Canada's 2026 growth projection fell to 0.9% from 1.2% in June, while the 2027 projection fell to 1.3% from 1.7%. The organization linked the downgrade to new U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports.

After 3.4% global growth in 2025, the OECD expects growth to slow to 2.9% in 2026, 0.1 percentage point better than its June forecast. It sees only a 3.0% expansion in 2027, 0.1 point lower than before. AI data-centre and semiconductor investment in the United States, together with technology exports from Japan and South Korea, are providing near-term resilience.

The G20 inflation forecast was raised to 4.1% for 2026 and 3.6% for 2027, with the latter 0.5 point above the June projection. The OECD estimated that combined risks from energy-market volatility, a strong El Niño, higher government-bond yields and disappointing AI investment returns could cut 2027 global growth by 0.7 point and add 1.1 points to inflation.

The OECD forecasts U.S. growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, Chinese growth of 4.5% and 4.2%, and euro-zone growth of 1.0% in each year. These are baseline forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes; central-bank decisions, trade policy, energy prices and extreme weather could change them.

Verification status: confirmed OECD forecast reported by Reuters. News value: A. Origin region: Europe (Paris, OECD headquarters). Primary section: Economy. Related regions: Canada, United States, China, Europe and worldwide. Source time: September 23, 2026, 08:02 UTC. Report date: September 23, 2026. The image is an N Globe editorial illustration.