N環球 
Toronto mayoral race a statistical tie as Chow's lead over Bradford narrows to about 3 points
An exclusive CP24/CTV News Toronto poll by Nanos Research shows Olivia Chow at 49.8% and Brad Bradford at 46.6% among decided voters — within the ±3.6-point margin of error — with less than a week to go before the Oct 26 vote.
Why it matters
With less than a week until the October 26 vote, the gap between the two frontrunners is now within the margin of error. Nanos chief data scientist Nik Nanos says debate performance and each camp's organizational muscle to turn out supporters will be the deciding factors.
Full report
The poll, conducted exclusively for CP24 and CTV News Toronto, surveyed 762 adult Toronto residents between Oct 15 and Oct 18. It found 49.8% of decided voters support Olivia Chow, compared to 46.6% for Brad Bradford, with about 4% backing another candidate. The margin of error is ±3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 — making the race effectively a statistical tie.
Compared to last week's Nanos poll, Chow's support is down about one point while Bradford is up nearly a point. In the Oct 6 poll, Chow still led by nearly 10 points; former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander then suspended his campaign (polling at about 4% at the time), and the race has tightened rapidly since.
Regionally, Chow leads in Scarborough (50.9%) and downtown (58.2%), while Bradford leads in North York (54.1%) and Etobicoke (52.9%). Nanos says the Oct 22 mayoral debate — "Toronto Decides," airing live on CP24 at 7 p.m. — and the ground-game organization of both camps will decide the final outcome on voting day.
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