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Brazil runoff poll: Bolsonaro leads Lula 46%-44% in first Quaest survey since first round
A Quaest poll released Oct. 14 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44% ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff — a statistical tie within the ±2-point margin of error.
Why it matters
With 11 days to go before the Oct. 25 runoff, this is the first Quaest poll since the first round, in which the younger Bolsonaro surprisingly led Lula. The race is now essentially tied, signaling a fiercely contested final stretch.
Full report
Reuters reported from São Paulo on Oct. 14 that polling firm Quaest's latest survey puts right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, at 46% against 44% for leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Quaest surveyed 2,154 people between Oct. 10 and 13; 9% of respondents said they would cast a blank or null ballot or stay home, while 1% were undecided.
It is the first Quaest poll published since the first-round vote earlier this month, in which the younger Bolsonaro surprisingly led Lula and forced a runoff. The second-round vote takes place on Oct. 25.
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