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AER releases 2026 Alberta Energy Outlook: oil output up 4% to 4.4M barrels per day, capex hits 10-year high
AER's 2026 Alberta Energy Outlook: crude oil and equivalent production up 4% to 4.4 million barrels per day in 2025; capex hits $32.4 billion, the highest in a decade.
Why it matters
The Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) on September 29, 2026 released the 2026 Alberta Energy Outlook (ST98), its annual assessment of Alberta's energy resources, production and market outlook — including a 10-year market-based forecast covering energy prices, oil and gas production and demand, reserves, capital expenditures, energy infrastructure, and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS).
The report underscores Alberta's central role in Canadian energy: in 2025, the province accounted for 60% of Canada's natural gas production and 84% of its oil equivalent production.
Key details
Crude oil and equivalent production rose 4% to reach 4.4 million barrels per day in 2025. Total capital expenditures for crude oil, natural gas, oil sands and emerging resources reached $32.4 billion — the highest level in the past decade, which the AER says reflects continued investment confidence in Alberta's energy sector.
The AER notes global energy markets were influenced by significant geopolitical developments in 2025 and 2026, including changes in U.S. energy and environmental policy, a Canadian federal-provincial memorandum of understanding supporting oil production growth and pipeline capacity, and conflict in the Middle East beginning in February 2026 that disrupted global energy supplies.
The outlook also examines Alberta's emerging energy and resource sectors, including hydrogen, geothermal, helium and lithium. The AER's 2025/26 annual report, released the same day, includes the Energy Outlook summary.
Source
Alberta Energy Regulator official announcement, September 29, 2026.
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