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Canada · Trade

NAFTA panel final ruling: U.S. can keep countervailing duties on Canadian softwood

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The binational panel affirmed the U.S. Commerce Department's determination, ending Canada's challenge to the softwood duties.

Why it matters

This is effectively the final word in a near-decade legal battle: U.S. countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber now have panel backing, locking in cost pressure for Canadian producers and export markets.

Full report

According to a notice in the U.S. Federal Register dated October 13, a binational panel under NAFTA Article 1904 issued its decision on October 5, 2026, affirming the U.S. Department of Commerce's Second Redetermination on Remand in the matter of Certain Softwood Lumber Products from Canada: Final Affirmative Countervailing Duty Determination.

The case (Secretariat file USA-CDA-2017-1904-02) was brought by Canada's federal government in November 2017, with producers including Canfor, Tolko and West Fraser participating. The panel's first ruling in May 2024 partly favoured Canada, asking Commerce to explain how it priced Crown timber in Alberta and British Columbia; after Commerce's fresh determination in December 2024, the panel accepted part of it in March and sent the rest back before upholding it in full this time.

Most of the subsidies found came from Crown stumpage, the price provinces charge for harvesting standing timber on public land. The U.S. Lumber Coalition said in an October 7 statement that the ruling confirms the Canadian softwood industry has long received unfair subsidies and that the duties are appropriate under U.S. law.

Canada had welcomed the panel's first ruling in 2024; no Canadian government response to the final ruling has been made public yet.

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