Six days to Quebec election: separatist PQ leads polls, vows third independence referendum

The referendum pledge

PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has repeatedly said a PQ government would hold an independence referendum during its first term — but not before January 20, 2029, when the current U.S. presidential term ends. In an editorial board meeting with La Presse on September 29, he reaffirmed the commitment: "We've made a number of commitments, and we shouldn't be afraid to let Quebecers vote." The party's costed platform prices the referendum at about C$130 million: C$20 million for studies and consultations early in a mandate, plus C$110 million to hold the vote itself in 2029 or 2030.

Polls and pushback

Recent polling shows sovereignty far down voters' priority lists. About three in ten Quebecers would vote "yes" in a referendum and only 14% believe such a vote would succeed, according to recent Léger and Pallas Data polling; voters are focused on the cost of living and health care. Premier Christine Fréchette, who leads the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, said the C$130 million "could be invested elsewhere." Liberal leader Charles Milliard said the sum could fund nearly a million hours of home care or build three elementary schools, while Conservative leader Éric Duhaime called the spending unacceptable.

The race

A Léger poll in early September put the PQ at 29%, ahead of the CAQ at 23%, the Liberals at 22%, the Conservatives at 15% and Québec solidaire at 10%. Analysts say the PQ's lead comes mainly from the collapse of the CAQ after nine years in power — amid health-care backlogs and cost-of-living pressures — rather than a surge in support for independence, which remains weakest outside francophone voters.

Sources

Bloomberg (September 29, 2026); La Presse editorial board meeting (September 29, 2026); Léger poll (early September 2026); 338Canada seat projections; Pallas Data.