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IMF cuts China's 2026 growth forecast to 4.5%; Beijing says confident in economy
The IMF's October World Economic Outlook trims China's 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts by 0.1 point each, to 4.5% and 4.0%. Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded on Oct 13 that China's economic fundamentals are sound.
Why it matters
The International Monetary Fund's October World Economic Outlook, released this week, lowered China's 2026 growth forecast from 4.6% (July) to 4.5%, and the 2027 forecast from 4.1% to 4.0% — a 0.1 percentage-point cut in both years. It is the leading multilateral institution's latest call on China's economy, and 4.5% sits at the lower edge of Beijing's official 4.5%–5.0% growth target for this year.
The Fund blamed domestic demand: the prolonged real-estate slump has weakened consumption and investment, and strong exports (up 25% year-on-year in August) have not been enough to offset it. Higher global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, protracted uncertainty and structural headwinds are expected to keep weighing on activity, while policy support should prevent a sharper slowdown.
Full report
Globally, the IMF edged its 2026 growth forecast up 0.1 point to 3.1%, citing resilient advanced economies and rising AI investment, with 3.4% seen in 2027. The United States is forecast at 2.3% for both years, the eurozone at 1.1%, Britain upgraded to 1.3%, and India lifted sharply to 7.0% — the fastest among major economies. Global headline inflation is put at 4.7% in 2026.
The report assumes an average oil price of $96 a barrel in 2026 ($87 in 2027) and that the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027. It warns that if the war escalates and oil hits $130 a barrel through the first quarter of 2027, global growth would lose another 0.2 percentage point in 2026.
Beijing responded quickly. At the foreign ministry's regular press briefing on Oct 13, when asked about the IMF downgrade, spokesperson Mao Ning said: "What is clear is that China's economic fundamentals are sound, and we are confident in the development of China's economy." (Reported by CCTV News and Securities Times.)
Context: China's GDP grew 5% last year; second-quarter growth this year was 4.3%, the weakest since late 2022. Beijing set this year's growth target at the 4.5%–5.0% range. (Sources: Caixin Global, Aju Press, The Hindu BusinessLine, Oct 13 CCTV/Securities Times reports.)
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