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Quebec's Final Léger Poll: PQ at 29% Ahead of Monday's Election
Léger's final pre-election poll puts the Parti Québécois at 29%, Liberals at 25% and Conservatives at 20%, with the governing CAQ down to 11% ahead of Monday's vote.
Why it matters
Quebecers vote on Monday, October 5, and the last Léger poll before election day shows the pro-independence Parti Québécois still leading but the race tightening: PQ 29%, Liberals 25%, Conservatives 20%, Québec solidaire 14%, and the governing CAQ down to 11%. The Journal de Montréal summed up its Saturday front page in three words: "Ça va être serré" — it's going to be close.
Full report
The Léger survey for Le Journal de Montréal and TVA, published October 3 with 892 respondents, puts the PQ's lead over the Liberals at just 4 points. Compared with Léger's September 27 poll, the PQ slipped from 30% to 29%, the Liberals from 26% to 25%, while Éric Duhaime's Conservatives climbed from 18% to 20% and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec fell from 16% to 11%.
The CAQ, which has governed Quebec for the past two terms, now polls behind even Québec solidaire and risks a major defeat. Poll aggregator Qc125 had projected 67 seats for the PQ on September 28 — just above the 64 needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly.
PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged in writing that a PQ government would consult Quebecers on independence during its first term, though not before January 2029. A Synopsis poll in late September found only 25% of voters would vote yes to sovereignty today, with 63% opposed.
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