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São Paulo: Brazil votes in runoff as Lula faces Bolsonaro Jr, polls neck and neck, first-round curse in play
Brazilians voted on Sunday in a presidential runoff pitting leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro Jr led the first round 47% to 45%, but polls show the race practically tied, and no candidate has ever won the presidency after coming second in the first round.
Why it matters
This is a vote on Latin America's largest nation's direction: a Bolsonaro Jr victory would shift Brazil sharply rightward, closer to the United States, extending a wave of right-wing wins for candidates friendly to US President Donald Trump; a fourth mandate for Lula would be a disappointment in Washington. And history adds a twist: no candidate has ever won the presidency after coming second in the first round, yet the polls say the race is tied.
Full report
Brazilians headed to the polls on Sunday in a tight runoff vote. The contest pits leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted in 2025 for plotting a 2022 coup.
Flávio Bolsonaro scored a major upset at the start of the month by defying pollsters to lead voting in the first round, picking up 47% of ballots cast while Lula trailed with 45%. His first-round win sent Brazil's markets and currency soaring on expectations of pro-business reforms, and his Liberal Party and other right-wing politicians mirrored that success in congressional elections, which could pave a legislative path for him, or complicate governance for Lula.
Historical precedent favors Bolsonaro, however, as no candidate has ever won the presidency after coming second in the first-round vote. But the polls favor Lula's comeback: the candidates are practically tied going into the runoff, as Lula has closed the gap in the final days.
The election race has been dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of US meddling, which Washington denies. Trump has called the case against Jair Bolsonaro a “witch hunt” and imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, in a decision explicitly linked to the trial, and unleashed new levies against Brazil this year, citing unfair trade practices. Lula has cast the Trump administration's proximity to the Bolsonaro clan as part of an attempt to sway the election, while labeling tariffs and other punitive measures as bullying. On economic issues, despite falling inequality and unemployment, Lula has struggled to win over an electorate grappling with high living costs and heavy household debt. Endemic gang violence also weighs on voters' minds. Bolsonaro has sought to capitalize on cost-of-living concerns and has also promised a heavy-handed approach to fighting crime, pledging maximum-security jails and chemical castration for serious sexual offenses.
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