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São Paulo runoff eve: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck in final polls
Brazil votes in its presidential runoff on October 25. Five polls published on October 24 all put Senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of President Lula, but every lead is within the margin of error; Bolsonaro led the first round by more than 2.2 million votes.
Why it matters
All five polls point the same way, yet none of the leads clears the margin of error: on the eve of the vote, the polls cannot settle the runoff, and a first-round lead of more than 2.2 million votes is not the same as a decided second round.
Full report
Brazil holds its presidential runoff on Sunday, October 25, pitting incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. A Reuters roundup of five polls published on October 24 shows Bolsonaro narrowly ahead in each one, but every lead within the margin of error.
The five polls: CNT/MDA, Bolsonaro 46.3% to Lula 45.0%, 2,032 people surveyed October 21-23, margin of error 2.2 points; Datafolha, 48% to 47%, 4,050 people surveyed October 23-24, margin 2 points; Quaest, 46% to 45%, 3,702 people surveyed October 23-24, margin 2 points; AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, 49.9% to 48.4%, 4,990 people surveyed October 18-23, margin 1 point; BTG/Nexus, 47.0% to 46.0%, 2,000 people surveyed October 23-24, margin 2.2 points.
The runoff follows the October 4 first round, in which the 45-year-old Bolsonaro finished ahead of the 80-year-old Lula by more than 2.2 million votes. Saturday was the final day of campaigning, with rallies in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte as both camps chased the few undecided voters left.
Source: Reuters poll roundup, October 24, 2026, as carried by multiple outlets; poll figures, samples and margins are as reported. Polls are not election results.
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