Bank of Korea warns chip exports could fall by up to $100 billion if AI spending slows

South Korea's semiconductor exports could fall by $50 billion to $100 billion compared with earlier forecasts if capital spending on artificial intelligence by major US technology firms slows next year, according to central bank data. The assessment comes from a written response the Bank of Korea submitted to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, reported by Reuters on October 27.

How the pessimistic scenario works

Under the scenario, a sudden export shortfall would shave approximately 0.4 percentage point off South Korea's gross domestic product growth rate next year, and drive the country's current account surplus well below the central bank's initial projection of $430 billion for 2027. The scenario assumed a 10% decline in Korean semiconductor unit prices.

Chips account for roughly half of South Korea's exports, so the trajectory of US AI spending matters enormously to its economy. Combined capital expenditure by five major US technology firms — Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle — has grown from $40 billion last year to an estimated $80 billion this year, and is projected to reach $110 billion next year. If that spending wave ebbs, the impact would land directly on Korean chip exports.

The central bank flags the uncertainty

The Bank of Korea cautioned that considerable uncertainty remains over the trajectory of AI demand and the broader memory chip business cycle. The simulation is a stress-test scenario, not the bank's formal forecast; how much exports actually fall depends on whether US tech firms really curb spending next year, and by how much.