Toronto mayoral race on voting eve: Liaison puts Chow at 52%, Bradford at 44% as lead flips

On the eve of Toronto's mayoral election on Monday, October 26, polling firm Liaison Strategies released its latest Toronto Pulse survey on October 25: among decided and leaning voters, incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow leads with 52% support, challenger city councillor Brad Bradford has 44%, and 4% choose someone else.

Method and overall trend

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 750 Toronto residents from October 24 to 25, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology, with results weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Among all respondents, 6% are undecided, down from 14% in the previous survey.

The headline shift is a reversal: Liaison's previous survey, on October 21, had Bradford ahead 49% to 47%. David Valentin, a principal at Liaison Strategies, said Chow now leads by eight points, reversing the two-point Bradford advantage in the previous survey.

Regional split: turnout geography is key

The regional numbers show each candidate with a base: Chow leads Downtown 60% to 35% and Scarborough 51% to 44%, while Bradford leads Etobicoke 54% to 41% and North York 52% to 46%. Valentin said support is only part of the calculation — where voters turn out will help determine how those regional preferences translate into a citywide result.

How other polls compare

Recent polls have diverged: Pollara's survey released October 23 put Chow at 55% to Bradford's 44%, while Canada Pulse Insights, also on October 23, had it 51% to 46%. Liaison's own trend shows the race swinging in the final week, leaving Monday's outcome still open.

Chow is seeking her first full term as mayor after winning Toronto's 2023 mayoral byelection; Bradford is a city councillor. Affordability, public safety, taxes and municipal services have become central issues in the campaign.