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Toronto Mayoral Race: Chow Leads Bradford by 5 Points in New CityNews Poll
A new Canada Pulse Insights poll for CityNews puts Olivia Chow at 51% to Brad Bradford's 46% among decided and leaning voters; her lead was 17 points in September. Election day is Oct 26.
Why it matters
With three days to go, the race has tightened from a blowout in September into a contest: Bradford has gained 12 points in a month, and undecided voters have fallen from 20% to 8%. The pollster says the final battle is about turning support into ballots.
Full report
The survey was conducted Oct 16–21 among 737 adult Toronto residents via an online panel managed by Sago, weighted to 2021 Census benchmarks by age and gender, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Among decided and leaning voters, Chow has 51% to Bradford's 46%, with 3% backing another candidate. Among decided voters who have already voted or say they will very definitely vote, it is Chow 51% to Bradford 47% — even tighter. In September Chow led by 17 points; Bradford has gained 12 since.
Regionally, Chow leads in Scarborough (56% to 41%) and Toronto & East York (55% to 43%); Bradford leads in North York (51% to 46%) and Etobicoke York (49% to 47%). Age and income splits are sharp: Chow leads 61% to 37% among voters 18–34; Bradford leads 53% to 44% among those 35–54, and 59% to 39% in households earning $150,000 or more.
On motivation, 68% of voters say they are mainly supporting their chosen candidate while 32% are mainly trying to prevent another from winning. Undecided voters are down to 8% from 20% in September. Election day is Monday, Oct 26.
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