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Toronto mayoral race on election eve: Pollara puts Chow at 55%, Bradford at 44%, but polls still disagree
A Pollara poll released October 23 puts incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow at 55% among decided voters, ahead of challenger Brad Bradford at 44%; other polls the same week show Bradford narrowly ahead, leaving the race uncertain hours before the October 26 vote.
Why it matters
This is one of the last polls before voting day: Pollara shows an 11-point lead, but other polls released almost simultaneously show the opposite or near-ties. What matters is not any single number but the whole picture across pollsters — and final turnout.
Full report
A Pollara Strategic Insights poll released October 23 found incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow at 55% support among decided voters, compared with 44% for city councillor challenger Brad Bradford. Among all respondents, including the undecided, Chow stood at 47% and Bradford at 38%, with 13% undecided. The poll surveyed 1,094 Toronto residents.
One point of context: the poll was commissioned by CUPE Local 416, the union that has endorsed Chow, which should be kept in mind when reading the result.
Other polls paint a different picture: a Liaison Strategies poll released October 21 put Bradford ahead 49% to 47%; a Mainstreet Research poll released October 20 also put Bradford ahead, 48.9% to 47.5%; a Canada Pulse Insights poll released October 23 put Chow ahead 51% to 46%.
Toronto's mayoral election takes place on Monday, October 26. Chow won a 2023 byelection and is seeking her first full term; Bradford is a sitting city councillor. Affordability, public safety, taxes and municipal services have been the campaign's central issues.
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