CBS poll: Democrats still projected at 229 House seats, lead not expanding

The latest CBS News/YouGov poll, published on Sunday, October 25, still projects Democrats winning 229 seats in its House model, enough to retake the majority, but the lead has held steady in recent weeks rather than expanding, with no growing electoral wave; Republicans retain a narrow path to holding the majority.

Model numbers and method

Under the CBS House model, the Democratic outcome could extend into the 230s, while Republicans still have a route to keep control. The survey interviewed 2,355 US adults between October 21 and 23, with a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points overall, 2.9 points for registered voters and 3 points for likely voters. A House majority requires 218 seats.

Voter mood: an avoidance election

Economic concerns and inflation remain central to voter preferences: voters who call inflation very important, or who say rising prices have caused financial hardship, lean Democratic; more voters think gas prices would rise if Republicans win, though few expect prices to fall under either party. CBS characterised the contest as an avoidance election, with voters on both sides more motivated by preventing the other party from gaining power than by their own party's policies.

Most voters do not expect to be financially better off under either party, though relatively more think they would fare better under Democrats; more than seven in ten Democratic voters said their congressional vote was intended to oppose President Donald Trump. CBS also noted that undecided or uncertain voters tend to profile as more Republican, and whether they turn out may be the key question of 2026.