N環球 
Fed September Minutes Signal Hawkish Tilt: Most Officials See Another Hike by Year-End as Likely
The Federal Reserve released the September FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. ET on Oct 7: all 19 officials backed the September 25-bp hike, and "most" assessed another increase by year-end would likely be appropriate; the dot plot showed a 16-2 majority expecting at least one more hike this year.
Why it matters
After the September hike, markets have been asking "how many more?" The minutes give a clearly hawkish answer: policymakers are leaning toward one more increase before year-end, with inflation risks still tilted to the upside.
Key takeaways
At the Sept 15-16 meeting, the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The minutes state: "Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end."
All 19 officials supported the September hike, and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) dot plot showed a 16-2 majority expecting at least one more increase this year. The median estimate of the neutral rate was revised up from 3.06% to 3.25%, with the median federal funds rate projected at 4.1% at end-2026.
Inflation and jobs
Officials project August PCE inflation at 3.8% headline and 3.4% core, with inflation risks generally seen as tilted to the upside. The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, and the labor market is described as near full employment.
AI and inflation
The minutes noted AI is boosting the outlook for investment and productivity, but could also lift inflation through demand, input costs and financing needs. On Oct 1, official Lorie Logan said the target range may need to move up "50 basis points or more."
The minutes contain no forward commitment; officials reiterated that future moves will depend on incoming data.
💬 Comments
No comments yet. Be the first!