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US September payrolls rise just 29,000, far below forecasts; jobless rate ticks up to 4.2%
The BLS reported September nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000 — well under the expected 84,000 — with the unemployment rate at 4.2% and the prior two months revised down by a combined 60,000.
Why it matters
September payrolls came in at roughly one-third of what economists expected, and the prior two months were revised down sharply — a sign the US labor market is cooling faster than anticipated. This is the last full jobs report before the Federal Reserve's next rate decision, so it carries outsized weight for interest-rate expectations.
Full report
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September Employment Situation report at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 2. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000, far below the roughly 84,000 economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected, and below the average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, with about 7.1 million people unemployed.
The previous two months were revised down by a combined 60,000: July was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August from a gain of 162,000 to 133,000. By industry, healthcare added 17,000 jobs (slower than its 12-month average of 33,000), construction added 11,000, and manufacturing added 9,000. Financial activities shed 7,000 jobs — the sector has now lost 129,000 positions since its May 2025 peak — and government employment fell by 17,000.
Wage growth was also soft: average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% (5 cents), below the expected 0.3%, with the year-over-year pace slipping to 3.0%. One offset came from the household survey, where employment rose by 406,000 and the labor force expanded by 485,000, lifting the participation rate to 61.8%.
Market reaction
After the release, Fed funds futures priced only about a 15% chance of an October rate hike, down from roughly 28% before the data. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.17%, the 2-year to 4.72%, and USD/JPY eased to around 157.15. Attention now turns to whether any rate hike happens at all in December — markets currently see roughly an 88% chance of one this year.
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