Nvidia Holds Just 39% of Frontier Labs' Future Compute Deals as Custom Chips Take 46%, JPMorgan Note Says

Nvidia holds only a 39% share of future compute agreements among frontier AI laboratories, far below its market share of more than 80% in 2023-2025, according to the November 14 edition of Eye on the Market by Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan Asset Management. Custom chips from Broadcom, Google and Amazon together account for 46%, suggesting the AI compute market is moving from a single dominant supplier toward several strong contenders.

The numbers: custom chips at 46%

The note's chart measures "frontier lab future compute agreements" in gigawatts, with a total of roughly 41 GW. Nvidia accounts for 39% (about 16 GW), Broadcom custom chips 24%, Google TPUs 16%, AMD GPUs 15% and Amazon Trainium 6%. Broadcom, Google and Amazon custom chips together reach 46%, seven points more than Nvidia.

The note also says Nvidia "earned 83% of AI chip revenues from 2023-2025 with gross margins of 75% and operating margins of 66%". In Cembalest's reading, the key shift is not toward AMD but toward custom silicon: labs are increasingly adopting chips tailored to their own models.

Switching costs fall as AMD gains ground

The note says one frontier lab reported that switching its models to AMD chips now takes three days, compared with an earlier estimate of six to 12 months. The note does not name the lab, and the claim has not been independently verified.

The note cites an Epoch AI inference index that puts AMD at the top on modelled performance per chip, and says Nvidia's Rubin Ultra series "may change that when rolled out in 2027".

Timing: two days after Huang's resignation

The note landed two days after Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia's chief executive on November 12. Nvidia's board has confirmed that the appointment of its next permanent CEO remains at the executive search firm selection stage, while the South Korean government said Nvidia's commitment to supply 260,000 GPUs to South Korea remains fully intact.

Caveats behind the figures

The Cembalest note is the author's own view; its disclaimer says it "in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research". The note does not name the frontier labs or list the agreements behind the 39%, and it does not give the dates those agreements run to. The figures describe the distribution of future compute agreements, not current shipments or revenue.

What happens next

Markets will watch what Nvidia's management says around its November 17 earnings report, and progress on the permanent CEO appointment, to judge whether this share shift is a cyclical swing or the start of a structural turn in the AI compute market.