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US September CPI jumps to 3.7% year over year, beating forecasts as energy prices surge
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Oct 14 that US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% year over year, both above expectations; core CPI rose 2.6% from a year earlier. Energy was the main driver.
Why it matters
This is the last major inflation reading before the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 policy meeting. The hotter-than-expected print revived bets on the rate path, and the US dollar strengthened after the release.
Key data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported September CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET today: headline prices rose 0.6% month over month (August: 0.4%), above the 0.5% consensus, and 3.7% year over year (August: 3.4%), above the 3.6% consensus. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% on the month — unchanged from August and above the 0.2% consensus — and 2.6% year over year (August: 2.4%), also above expectations.
Energy was the main driver: prices jumped 5.2% in September, with gasoline up 9.1%, fuel oil up 15.3%, electricity up 0.2% and utility gas down 0.3%. Food prices were flat (groceries fell 0.1%, restaurant food rose 0.2%). Shelter costs rose 0.4%, the largest single contributor to the monthly increase.
Political reaction
House Budget Committee Ranking Member Brendan Boyle said in a statement that President Trump had failed to deliver on his promise to lower inflation "on day one," blaming tariffs and war for higher costs for American families more than 600 days into his second term.
Background
US headline inflation has run between 3.3% and 4.2% since March 2026, driven mainly by energy, while core inflation has eased more gradually. Markets had expected core to cool to 0.2% month over month in September; the 0.3% print missed that optimism.
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