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U.S. September payrolls miss badly with 29,000 gain; stocks rally, Fed hike bets cool
September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 and unemployment climbed to 4.2%, cooling bets on an October Fed rate hike as U.S. stocks jumped.
Why it matters
U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by just 29,000 in September, far below the expected 84,000–90,000, while August's figure was revised down to 133,000; unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.2% and hourly wages climbed only 0.1% month over month. Markets quickly scaled back bets on an October Fed hike, pricing the odds of unchanged rates at about 83%, as stocks and bonds rallied.
Full report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' September Employment Situation report, released Friday, showed payrolls rising 29,000 — well short of expectations — with August revised down to 133,000. The unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.2%, against expectations of holding steady; average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, below the 0.3% expected, pointing to subdued wage pressure.
Markets reacted strongly: the S&P 500 rose about 0.9%–1.05%, the Nasdaq gained roughly 1.35%–1.4% to a fresh intraday record (the US 100 tech gauge hit an all-time high of 30,873), and the Dow added more than 300 points. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 5–6 basis points to 5.18%–5.20%. Traders now put the probability of the FOMC holding rates steady in October at around 83% (the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting). Earlier, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan struck a hawkish tone Thursday evening, estimating the federal funds rate may need to rise more than 50 additional basis points; Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, by contrast, signaled patience for more data.
Crude oil fell more than 3% after France proposed releasing 100 million barrels from strategic reserves.
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