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US producer prices surge 6.3% in September, biggest in nearly four years; retail sales beat forecasts
The Labor Department reported Thursday: September PPI jumped 1.3% on the month, the largest since March 2022, and 6.3% on the year, the most since December 2022; retail sales rose 0.8%, above the 0.3% forecast; jobless claims came in at 199,000, a fifth straight week below 200,000.
Why it matters
The US Labor Department reported Thursday morning (8:30 ET) that the Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.3% in September — the largest monthly gain since March 2022 and far above economists' 0.5% forecast. In the 12 months through September, the PPI soared 6.3%, the biggest annual rise since December 2022. It is the last wholesale inflation reading before the Fed's Oct 27–28 policy meeting.
Inflation details
Producer goods prices rose 2.6%, the largest increase since the series began in December 2009; a 10.8% surge in energy prices — gasoline up 20.3% — accounted for more than 80% of the rise. Services prices shot up 0.8%, with trade-services margins surging 1.4%. Hotel room prices jumped 5.6% and airfares 5.0%.
Retail and jobs
Separately, the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.8% in September, above the 0.3% forecast; receipts at service stations surged 6.4% and auto dealership sales rose 0.2%. Core retail sales — excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services — edged up just 0.1%. Initial jobless claims rose 1,000 to 199,000, the fifth straight week below 200,000; continuing claims fell to 1.71 million.
Market reaction
CME's FedWatch tool showed roughly a 30% chance of a rate increase at the Oct 27–28 meeting. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September to the 3.75%–4.00% range. US stocks fell, with the Nasdaq near one-month lows; the dollar eased and Treasury yields slipped.
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