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Texas Senate race a nail-biter: new Marist poll has Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%
A Marist poll released Oct. 14 shows Democrat James Talarico at 47% and Republican Ken Paxton at 45% among likely voters in the Texas U.S. Senate race, inside the margin of error; in the governor's race, Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45%.
Why it matters
With 20 days until the Nov. 3 midterms, Texas — a longtime Republican stronghold — has a genuinely competitive Senate race. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate it a tossup, the Democrats' best Senate opening in Texas in decades.
Full report
The Marist poll, released Oct. 14, 2026, puts Democrat James Talarico, a state representative, at 47% and Republican Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, at 45% among likely voters, with a margin of error of ±4.9 points.
The same poll's governor race shows incumbent Republican Greg Abbott at 49% and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa at 45%.
Other recent surveys point the same way: a Fox News poll had Talarico up 51% to 49%, and a YouGov survey gave him a six-point lead. Paxton's camp is attacking him as too liberal, and both sides are pouring money into TV ads for the final stretch.
Sources: Political Wire, CNN-News18, Daily Letter, Oct. 14, 2026
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