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World Bank raises East Asia-Pacific growth forecast to 4.5%, warns on AI reliance
The World Bank's October 2026 regional outlook raises East Asia-Pacific growth to 4.5%, driven by AI goods exports — but warns that non-AI trade growth is weak or negative.
Why it matters
AI-related exports and investment are now doing most of the heavy lifting for East Asia's growth — including in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, where AI goods made up more than 70% of export growth. The World Bank's warning is clear: if global AI spending reverses, a key pillar supporting the region's trade, investment and market valuations comes out with it.
Full report
In its October 2026 East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, "Riding the AI Wave," released on 6 October, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for the region by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%. The upgrade reflects strong AI-related goods investment and exports in countries plugged into the global AI value chain.
The report notes that as of April 2026, AI-related products accounted for more than half of export growth in most countries, and over 70% in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Country forecasts include Vietnam at 7.4% (revised up 1.1 points), Malaysia at 5.1% (raised), China at 4.4%, and the Philippines unchanged at 3.7%; Pacific island nations were cut to 2.2%.
The Bank warns that trade growth excluding AI-related goods is "weak or negative," and that high energy costs remain a source of risk. A reversal in global AI spending, it says, would remove a key pillar supporting trade, investment and financial market valuations in the region.
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