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Canada's annual inflation rises to 3.1% in September as gasoline prices jump 27.8%
Statistics Canada data shows September CPI up 3.1% year over year, above August's 3.0%, driven by gasoline prices; this is the last inflation reading before the Bank of Canada's October 28 rate decision.
Why it matters
Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September, Statistics Canada data showed on Monday, above August's 3% but just under the 3.2% forecast by analysts polled by Reuters. Inflation is back above the Bank of Canada's 1–3% target band upper limit for the first time in three months, Reuters reported from Ottawa on October 19.
Full report
Energy prices were the main driver: up 19% year over year in September (from 15.4% in August), with gasoline costs jumping 27.8%. Grocery prices rose 1.7% year over year, the smallest annual increase since May 2024. Shelter prices increased 1.8% (from 1.5% in August), with rents up 2.8%. Air transportation rose 19.4%.
Core measures: CPI-median slowed to 1.9%, while CPI-trim was 1.8%. On a month-over-month basis, CPI rose 0.1% in September after a 0.1% decline in August.
This is the last CPI reading before the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision on October 28. Governor Tiff Macklem has said the new forecasts released alongside the decision will show higher inflation, though there are no signs yet that inflation has spread to other commodities. Money markets are betting the Bank will hold its rate at 2.25% on October 28, while pricing in a 25-basis-point hike in December.
Sources: Reuters (Promit Mukherjee, Ottawa), Statistics Canada, October 19, 2026. This article reports data only and makes no market predictions.
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