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US midterm eve: polls put Democrats about 9 points ahead nationally as House control hangs in the balance
On the eve of the November 3 US midterms, polls show Democrats leading Republicans by about 9 points on the national congressional ballot, with several key Senate races close; voters rank the economy and the cost of living first. Polls measure pre-election intent, not results. (Cover photo is a file photo of the US Capitol.)
American voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, to elect all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, deciding whether Republicans keep control of Congress for the remaining two years of President Donald Trump's second term. Eve-of-election polls put Democrats ahead nationally, though a national lead does not translate directly into the same number of House seats.
The national ballot and the House map
A RealClearPolling average of surveys through October 30 put Democrats ahead 52% to 43.1% on the generic congressional ballot, an 8.9-point lead; an NBC News survey conducted October 28-30 found 52% to 45%, and an Emerson College poll conducted October 24-26 put the gap at 10 points. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report's latest ratings place 222 districts in categories favouring Democrats and 195 favouring Republicans, with 18 toss-ups; 218 seats are needed for a House majority, and Republicans currently hold it 219-214 with two vacancies.
The Senate: Democrats need a net gain of four
In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats to 47 for Democrats and two independents who caucus with them, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. New York Times/Siena polls conducted October 23 to November 1 showed Democratic candidates ahead in six of seven key Senate battlegrounds and effectively tied in the seventh. Races to watch include Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton), North Carolina (Cooper vs. Whatley), Michigan and Georgia (Ossoff vs. Collins).
The voter mood: the economy first
Surveys point to the economy and the cost of living as voters' top concern, followed by health care. An Associated Press-NORC survey conducted October 8-12 found just 36% of voters approved of Trump's job performance and 64% disapproved, while battleground-state polling put his approval at 38%. Analysts cite rising prices and tariff policy as the main drag on the governing party, but polls can miss, and the outcome will only be known once votes are counted.
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