Hong Kong's third-quarter growth set to beat forecasts, Paul Chan says in Sunday blog, as September exports jump 64.9%

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan said in his weekly blog on Sunday, November 1, that the city's third-quarter economic growth should come in above market forecasts and accelerate from the second quarter. For the first three quarters combined, real GDP growth year on year will be the strongest for that period in five years, he said, and the economy is set for a 15th consecutive quarter of positive growth. The government will release its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP on Tuesday, November 3.

September exports of HK$762.6 billion, the biggest monthly rise in over 40 years

Chan attributed the better-than-expected growth to faster export expansion and steady domestic demand. Census and Statistics Department figures released on October 28 showed September merchandise exports surged 64.9% year on year to HK$762.6 billion, the 20th consecutive month of double-digit growth and the largest monthly increase in more than 40 years; exports of office machines and automatic data-processing machines soared 183.7%. Imports rose 57.8% to HK$808.9 billion in September, and for the first nine months of the year exports and imports were up 45.2% and 45.0% respectively; on a seasonally adjusted basis, third-quarter exports rose 8.8% from the previous quarter.

AI investment boom behind the surge; full-year forecast already raised in August

Chan linked the export strength to the global artificial intelligence investment boom, which continues to drive strong demand for high-end electronic components and AI-related goods. The government raised its 2026 growth forecast in August from 2.5–3.5% to 3.5–4.5%. A government spokesman, releasing the trade figures, cautioned that external uncertainties still warrant close monitoring, including the Middle East conflict, protectionist measures by major economies, and risks from the rapid expansion of global AI investment.